Monthly Archives: January 2016


Over at, they have the following, which I will comment on and face palm myself many times over…

Some of these are unbelievable if true.  It is self-explanatory.  I take on faith that the summaries are correct.  E-V is not set up for comments.

National Review Eviscerates Donald Trump

The flagship publication of the conservative movement, National Review, which was founded by the late William F. Buckley, Jr. in 1955 (in New York, of all places), came out yesterday with essays by 22 conservative authorspummeling Donald Trump. Here is an executive summary, organized by the main thesis of each essay: Continue reading


Why Have Recent Polls Been So Wrong?… Maybe They Should Try Polling Registered Voters (DUH)

Over at my Go To election campaign coverage website at there was this yesterday (Jan 13):

Why Have Recent Polls Been So Wrong?
Polls in places as disparate as Israel, the U.K., and Kentucky were way off last year. Pollsters still want to know why. Pew Research Center, which also does polling, has carried out an investigation and come to some conclusions. What it did was look at one of its 2014 polls more closely. In particular, from the polling data, it knows who it selected out as a likely voter and who was labeled an unlikely voter. Then it got the file of people who actually voted and matched it against its own poll to see how well its likely voter screen worked.

It appears that the main source of error in the poll was the likely voter screen. Asking people if they plan to vote turns out not to be a good predictor of whether they will vote or not. In particular, Democrats have a tendency to tell pollsters they will vote and then don’t vote, which leads to “surprising” Republican victories. Also a factor is people who changed their mind after talking to the pollster, but that probably is a smaller factor. Knowing what the problem is doesn’t solve the problem going forward, of course. On the other hand, it is good to know that low response rates and the large number of people who don’t have a landline weren’t the core problems. (V)

The voter screen, the voter screen, the voter screen, yaddah, yaddah, yaddah…


[First of all, I don’t give a rat’s ass about polling for primaries.  I am talking about polling for Election Day.]

[We all have some curiosity about voting machine reliability, but we also are not talking about THAT today.]

I will simply address the polling non-reliability based on my last post.  In that, the voter turnout for people who were actually citizens AND registered to vote in the last Presidential year, 2012, was 86.81% nationally.  States varied from West Virginia’s 70.26% to the 90.26% in Colorado, a swing state.  The median was 87.75% in Hawaii.

With 7 out of every 8 REGISTERED voters actually casting a ballot in 2012, I cannot see one reason AT ALL why anyone has a problem with polling and getting good results.  You find 1,000 registered voters, sorted only for demographic balance (which no one admits to being their problem) , and of those you can expect 87% to vote come Election Day.  And if 87% vote, your poll is going to be damned close.  With only 1 out of 8 registered voters NOT voting, how can you possibly get it far wrong?

SO, IT IS ONLY NECESSARY TO GO BY REGISTERED VOTER LISTS.  The proper demographics within that population should be a piece of cake – men, women, blacks, Democrats, Republicans, white, Asian, Hispanic – everything but dogs and cats mating in the streets.  Using the latest percentages of each to select which voters to poll – that should be about the easiest thing in the world.

Adjustments per state should, of course,be made, too.  Basically that means that in West Virginia the uncertainty is higher, but other than that, WTF is the problem?

Now, a full 40 million fewer voters voted in the off-year 2014 election, down from 132 million to 92 million nationwide.  That put the natinoal average at 64.89% of REGISTERED voters.  So in off-year elections, the uncertainty gets larger.

But I dare any of the polling firms to come up with more reliable indicators of WHO will actually go to vote.

I mean, WHAT THE HELL? We read that this polling firm prefers phone polls and that one prefers online polls.  HOW can that POSSIBLY be more reliable than building a database of ACTUAL voters from previous elections, adding new registered voters to that database – and then use THAT to select who to poll?

I tells ya, folks, this ain’t perzackly rockit science, ya know?



Wow.  If you are like me, you probably think that voter turnout in America is bad.

And I think that a lot of people reading this blog entry are going to think I am really stupid and uninformed.  But bear with me.  I learned something and maybe you will, too.




And SO WRONG we should all be ripping new assholes at every news source in America. IMHO.

What would you say if I told you that voter turnout in the USA in 2012 was 86.81%?

Hmmm. . . I even have it down to two decimal-places, don’t I?   YEP.

Here is the first tidbit, the BIG tidbit, the Big Enchilada:

In the last Presidential Election year, 2012, 71.2% of the population was registered to vote, and of those then eligible to cast a vote on Election Day, 86.81% went to the polls and voted

If I asked you to pull ONE important number out of that sentence, what would it be?

If your brain works like mine does, you’d pick out the 86.81%.

But exactly what does that sentence mean?

First off, it says that of U.S. citizens only 23 out of every 32 (71.2%) registers to vote.  Obviously that says that 9 out of 32 doesn’t register, for whatever reason.

That reason might be that they simply don’t want to participate.  Or that they have forgotten to register.  Or it could mean that they don’t understand about voting.  OR it even could be that someone is suppressing their right to vote, whether through draconian red tape or perhaps by intimidation or misinformation – or, as the GOP has been pushing, a lack of proper identification.  There are certainly other reasons. Continue reading

It Is a Time for Just Watching the Ship Go Down

Over at Campaign for America’s Future, in New Year’s Resolution: Civic Action to Fix Our Democracy, they are arguing for us to use civilized methods to undo the damage of the Republican theft of America.  They in particular want to undo Citizens United.  I wrote:
Citizens United is a special case and WILL be dealt with.
In terms of both that being overturned and civic action in general, from what I am seeing, the disintegration of the Republican Party is making the latter almost unnecessary, while also making the tenor of the times TO COME better for doing the former.
I just got a belly laugh, thinking of Antonin Scalia rolling over in his future grave when his ghost realizes that so much of what he had so goddamned staunchly twisted, legally, will be undone in the coming 20 years.
The real fact is that America’s citizenry does NOT support free-market greed at the expense of the middle class, no matter HOW much CNN and FOX and ABC and CBS have cow-towed to that bogus philosophy.
It has been an anomalous time, since 1994, when Newt Gingrich rolled out his welcome mat for the Christian fundamentalists. it was a coalition made in hell, but no one noticed it, because the fundies for most of those 22 years have not opened their eyes at how the business Republicans were using them at election time and not even throwing them SCRAPS in legislation.
In fact, one might even argue that the Republican stoppage of all bills through Congress has even bought the business Repugs time. But whatever time they gained, they’ve not been able to forestall the inevitable:
The fundies woke UP.  The Tea Party is the result, and since the TP is within the GOP, the Bizrepugs are simply being FORCED to cut off their hands to spit their faces. Or leave, themselves.
I saw this coming SO VERY LONG AGO, this wake-up and the repercussions and the rebellion and the hijacking and the gnashing of teeth (which won’t do any good).
“The enemy of my enemy is not only NOT my friend, but the bastard WILL stab me in the back some day.”
That time approaches, and there is nothing anyone outside it can do. And nothing the BizRepugs can do, either. The parting of the ways is almost upon us, and like WWI and Hitler, the ones controlling how it goes are all bat shit crazy. So, don’t expect anything less than a Reagan-ian Apocalypse. All that Reagan and his handlers have tried to do in the last 35 years is coming to naught, taken down by the very allies that allowed them to extend Reaganomics, that silly voodoo that you do, so well, St Ronnie.
So, the plantation owners who’ve been living in the mansion are being overrun by their sharecroppers. The Trailer Trash Coalition (I can say that since I am from the edge of the Ozarks myself) is coming apart at the seams, and all good civics students for the time being need only sit by and watch – and look sane.
Looking sane in the coming months will make the Dems so VERY attractive to not only Hispanics and blacks and women, but also to all those true independents. Garnering THEM will give Hillary (or Bernie) coattails of Rooseveltian proportions. She/he already has the Blue Wall and 75% of the swing states. There simply aren’t enough crazies and stupids in those states. The Republican effort to en-stupid America didn’t quite happen fast enough. Anyone not bat shit crazy will vote Democrat in November.
AFTER the slaughter – THAT is the time to assess when to undo Citizens United, to re-start the regulatory agencies, and to take back America. The future looks so rosy, and no one seems to see it. SCOTUS changed, due to a Dem Senate and Dem President – probably for the nest 16 years, if not 32. THAT is where Citizens United will be changed. There is precedence, I understand, for undoing SCOTUS decisions (Japanese internment camps).
Stop thinking of the GOP as business and Tea Party. The divorce is just around the corner. They each hate each other now more than they hate Democrats. And their Big Tent – who is going to get the Big Tent? When they split, it won’t matter. When there are three parties – and there will be – the Dems will win elections with 43% (like Bill did) when 43% used to be a loser number. Think of a HUGE majority in the Senate. And the House will not be far behind. 2020 is a re-apportionment and re-districting election. Gerrymandering is being attacked on all sides. In 5-6 years we might even have fairly normal House districts, even. THAT needs civic action, yes!
But the big Kahuna – the split in the GOP – that is up to the Hitler Tea Party and the rich guys who will never have enough voters to control Congress again in my lifetime or yours. Who really votes for parasitic aristocrats? Newt pulled and end around, but it is coming back to stab them in the back.
And it couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of parasites and trailer trash.
Hahahaha – who would EVER have thought they could find someone DUMBER than Dubya? And then DUMBER even than Palin?
Trailer trash has no business even THINKING about being in the White House.

Continue reading

No Duh… We Are in the Midst of Seeing a Party Get Hijacked

See my blog posts at

The Simple Fix for the Republican Party, vis-a-vis the Tea Party (OCT 2013),

THE GOP and Their Trailer Trash Problem (DEC 2013),

Strange Thoughts on Politics – Is the GOP Screwed (DEC 2015)?

Let’s begin now…  today has a short article titled “Could the Republican Party Split?

That links to  this NY Times article:  For Republicans, Mounting Fears of Lasting Split.  If the NYT is finally covering it, it must be almost the final showdown.

This is exactly what I’ve been telling people at least since Mitt Romney’s loss 3 years ago, and maybe all the way back to 2010 when the Tea Party exploded onto the scene. I wold have told people before that, but I had no confidence that the trailer trash people would ever wake up to what the GOP was doing with them.  I always saw the question plain as day:

How can these people keep on voting against their own self interest???!

I don’t think it takes a Nostradamus to have seen the handwriting on the wall. Since Newt Gingrich’s 1994 coup in garnering the allegiance of the Christian fundamentalists, it seemed only a matter of time before some of the trailer trash folks realized that they were being used every election cycle for their votes but ignored when it came time to composing bills in Congress. Continue reading

Republicans and Authoritarians and Baptists, Oh My!

In this month that is the start of the American Presidential campaign 2016, after already so many debates, it is fitting and proper that we take a look at the clowns that the Republican Party has who somehow think that they are even REMOTELY qualified to be President of the United States.

I think I will start with this:

“By ‘right-wing authoritarianism’ I mean the covariation of three attitudinal clusters in a person:

  1. Authoritarian submission – a high degree of submission to the authorities who are perceived to be established and legitimate in the society in which one lives.
  2. Authoritarian aggression – a general aggressiveness, directed against various persons, that is perceived to be sanctioned by established authorities.
  3. Conventionalism – a high degree of adherence to the social conventions that are perceived to be endorsed by society and its established authorities.”

That is from The Authoritarian Specter, by Bob Altemeyer, written in 1996 (Harvard University Press).

Be aware that he was writing not about a system, but about individual persons and what is going on in their heads.  I kind of like the term “attitudinal clusters”.  I might use that one myself in the future.

That book is for academics.  For those who do not want to wade through an academic treatise like me, feel free to read The Authoritarians, a more readable version of Altemeyer’s work, which was my introduction to his work.

When I look at Ted Cruz, the most blatant grabber for power among the silly party candidates, all I see is Joe McCarthy, a Joe McCarthy in religious garb. Continue reading