Rubio and Murphy in Florida – What Is Going to Happen There?

Let’s take a look at some numbers. . .

In the off-year election 2010 Republican Charlie Crist ran as an independent, after losing the GOP primary to Marco Rubio.  Rubio won the election, but failed to outvote Crist and the Democrat Kendrick Weeks.  They totaled 2.71 million to Rubio’s 2.65 million.  Between the 3 the total was about 5.36 million votes.  Crist actually flipped in January 2011 to being a Democrat.

In the presidential year election of 2012, 8.19 million votes were cast in the Senatorial race between Bill Nelson and Tea Partier Connie Mack , with Nelson absolutely slaughtering Mack, 4.52 million to 3.46 million.  2.83 million more votes were cast — presumably because of the Presidential election being a big draw.  Certainly with Mack trailing so badly, the 8.19 didn’t come out for the Senate race, as was the case in 2010.

That is the background for this election, numbers-wise.  This being a presidential year again, we should be expecting about 8.2 million again, perhaps a bit more.  In neither year 2010 or 2012 did the GOP candidate garner more than 3.5 million votes.  Rubio, with not even outvoting the combined Crist-Meeks tandem, has no real history running against a real Democrat.  Crist, being a moderate and eventually a Democrat, garnered many Democratic votes, as he was seen as a much stronger candidate than Meeks — out-polling him by 600,000.  So it is impossible to tell what Rubio would do head-to-head with a real Democrat.

But he is going to have to draw about 1.6 million more votes than he did in 2010 — just to be close.

For comparison of Democrat vs Republican head-to-head, in the 2004 election Mel Martinez won 3.67 million to 3.59 million over Betty Castor.  Then in 2006 Bill Nelson clobbered wacko Katherine Harris 2.89 million to 1.83 million.  So, as expected, the vote totals are very much higher in presidential years than off years — 7.26M to 4.72M.  That is 54% higher.

In that VERY close 2004 election, the Republican Martinez actually won Orange County and Dade County – strong Democratic bastions.  Without those counties, it is likely that Betty Castor would have won.  Can Rubio carry Dade or Orange counties?  Not a chance.

So, Rubio has to deal with that higher vote total this year — about a million more than in Martinez got in 2004.

If Patrick Murphy runs a good, strong race, Rubio is going to be in serious trouble. Murphy is GOING to get 4 million votes — perhaps as many as Bill Nelson got in 2012, 4.5 million.  Rubio is going to have to increase his vote total by 1.5 million just to stay even, to split the expected 8.2 million votes.

A candidate who the whole state knows doesn’t show up for work is going to be sore pressed to do that, to INCREASE his vote totals by 55% or more.  They all KNOW he didn’t really WANT the job again, in the first place.  That is Strike One.  Rubio is not going to have the Republican wave as he had in 2010.  he couldn’t even beat Crist-Meeks WITH the wave.  And not only is he not going to have the GOP wave (and low Dem turnout).  That is Strike Two.  But he ALSO has the albatross around his neck, Donald Trump – he of the small hands – carrying the party banner.  That is Strike Three.

Add in this, Clinton Trounces Trump in Miami-Dade, New Poll Shows :

Hillary Clinton is so much more popular than Donald Trump among Miami-Dade County voters that even a significant number of Republicans support her in the likely presidential match-up, a new local poll has found.

Clinton leads Trump by a whopping 52-25 percent, with 23 percent of respondents undecided, according to the poll by Bendixen & Amandi International for the Miami Herald, el Nuevo Herald, WLRN and Univision 23.

So, with a lead like 52 to 25, Hillary is likely going to have coattails.  That is Strike Four for Rubio.

Rubio is probably going to go down.  Probably by 5%, I’d guess – maybe more. That is about 400,000. That sounds about right.


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