It appears that the Saturday Night Massacre might actually happen on a Saturday night.
Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.
Once a President has DONE whatever his underlying crime is, think about it, the rest is fairly inevitable, once the world wakes up to it – A criminal who got to the Presidency is going to be one slimy, manipulator of the world around him. As opposed to non-criminals who become President.
Given the nature of such a criminal, and his criminality, and that he has gotten away with so much for so long – enabled and covered by his entourage – he WILL have grown to be at least somewhat like a mafia don. Being told over and over for years how powerful and wise and ruthless he is, his satellite players feed his ideas of self-importance and his cleverness – and his teflon invincibility (to have gotten that far unscathed). . .
When Worlds Collide
What is his reaction going to BE, when the authorities lock their radar on him? He will attempt to shut it down before its tentacles get too close, and to divert it. And to make some deals, because everybody has a price. And who to deal with? The top dog over on that side. No underlings. Mano a mano. One on one. No witnesses. Jefe to jefe.
And if you’ve gotten to be the don, or mayor, or governor, or President, you hire and fire, and make sure the underlings know who the capo is. And if you don’t deal with probable problem people early on, you are screwing up. Get them out of your organization right away and replace them with controllable people.
Let’s take a look at some numbers. . .
In the off-year election 2010 Republican Charlie Crist ran as an independent, after losing the GOP primary to Marco Rubio. Rubio won the election, but failed to outvote Crist and the Democrat Kendrick Weeks. They totaled 2.71 million to Rubio’s 2.65 million. Between the 3 the total was about 5.36 million votes. Crist actually flipped in January 2011 to being a Democrat.
In the presidential year election of 2012, 8.19 million votes were cast in the Senatorial race between Bill Nelson and Tea Partier Connie Mack , with Nelson absolutely slaughtering Mack, 4.52 million to 3.46 million. 2.83 million more votes were cast — presumably because of the Presidential election being a big draw. Certainly with Mack trailing so badly, the 8.19 didn’t come out for the Senate race, as was the case in 2010.
That is the background for this election, numbers-wise. This being a presidential year again, we should be expecting about 8.2 million again, perhaps a bit more. In neither year 2010 or 2012 did the GOP candidate garner more than 3.5 million votes. Rubio, with not even outvoting the combined Crist-Meeks tandem, has no real history running against a real Democrat. Crist, being a moderate and eventually a Democrat, garnered many Democratic votes, as he was seen as a much stronger candidate than Meeks — out-polling him by 600,000. So it is impossible to tell what Rubio would do head-to-head with a real Democrat.
But he is going to have to draw about 1.6 million more votes than he did in 2010 — just to be close. Continue reading
[Edited May 8, 2016…]
I have been gestating an idea in my head for about a week.
A comment on a Thomas Friedman article in the NY Times Trump and the Lord’s Work by one Mary Scott included this, which ties in with my developing thinking:
“Four years after the Republicans regained the House, they’d produced the least productive terms since we’ve been keeping track.”
My conjecture is that the 62 years from 1933 to 1995 left that party scarred. That was when the GOP had 58 years of being a minority party in Congress. The other four years brought the country the Red Scare and the McCarthy era.
Scarred how? No, not by McCarthy or by other red baiters. Participants in those like Roy Cohn and Richard Nixon. Scarred by simply being a minority party too long.
Because of two full generations of resisting the actions (solutions enacted to perceived problems) of the Democrats – I want to ask the question:
Did they forget how to govern? 62 years is a LONG freaking time to never run things.
Majority parties and minority parties have to do things differently. Majority parties initiate bills. Minority parties find reasons to resist against those bills. Majority party members scan the horizon for both problems to solve and the solutions to those problems. Minority parties do neither; their members have no need to look ahead and see what is going on. They are too busy trying to put the brakes on. Simply put, majority parties are gas pedals, while minority parties are brake pedals.
But what happens when a party is in the minority for a very long time and then finds itself in the driver’s seat? Can it shift gears and become the initiators, the gas pedal instead of the brake? Can it govern AS an initiator? Or does the braking mentality continue?
LET’S TAKE A LOOK
What kind of laws do Republicans pass? HAVE they passed?
What kinds of actions have Republican Presidents taken?
Laws repealing other laws. Laws trying to undo Democratic Party past actions.
- Union busting actions like Reagan’s PATCO dissolution in the 1980s, in violation of the Wagner Act (a New Deal law allowing collective bargaining) which allowed for the proliferation of unions.
- Stifling the regulatory agencies – partly by installing Directors who were antipathetical to the very regulations the agency exists to enforce.
- 62 attempts by the U.S. House to repeal the ACA (Obamacare) – all unsuccessful.
- Repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999, the law prohibiting commercial banks from engaging in investment banking practices. Within 9 years the Crash of 2008 occurred.
- Abolishment of the Fairness Doctrine in 1987 by a Reagan-appointed FCC Chairman.
- 62 or so attempts by the House to repeal the ACA, Obamacare.
It is not difficult to see in this the genesis of the “tax and spend Democrats” phrase that has been parroted down the years. To be only standing on the sidelines and unable to generate anything of their own, while the Dems did all sorts of things from the New Deal to the New Frontier – Did that emasculation have an effect? I know that Republican fathers and grandfathers have imbued the Republican mindset into their offspring – including hatred of all things FDR. But did those fathers and grandfathers ALSO fail to transmit ANY idea that governing includes RESPONSIBILITY to solve new problems that arose? Continue reading
I’ve known all this for some time now. Hillary Clinton has it in the bag. Sanders does NOT have a path to victory.
It is my opinion that Sanders is well aware of it, but refuses to let his people know how bad it is.
Here is the MAGIC NUMBER 639.
WHY? She now has 1744 delegates, INCLUDING the superdelegates that Sanders is humping for RIGHT NOW. He is humping for them because he knows those votes of those delegates COUNT. He will be lucky to flip 5. Out of Hillary’s 475. WHOOP DE DOO.
So, when Hillary gets 639 more delegates, she will have 2383. When she DOES, she will have won. CAN SHE?
A piece of cake. Based on the latest polls, she will get about 789 from WI-NY-CA-PA-NJ-CT-MD-RI-DE-NM-PR-DC, and there ain’t a lot Sanders can do about that.
Can he cut it down by 100? Maybe. But too little, too late.
For those who can’t count it up, 789 is 150 MORE than the 639 she needs to clinch. So if she gets that many (as it seems) she will have 150 more than the 2383. That makes 2533.
When she CLINCHES, IT’S OVER. BERNIE LOSES.
And those 789 aren’t all.
There are another 288 or so for her in not-so-friendly states like ND-SD-WY-MT-IN-OR-GU-WV-KY-VI. She will get those because of the proportional primaries that the Democrats run.
She will then have 2821, more or less.
And THOSE aren’t all, either. THEN there are the 217 uncommitted SUPERDELEGATES, who, once she gets really close (like after PA) will start committing to Hillary. Expect 200 of those for her. She will THEN have 3021 give or take a few.
Politifact did a puff piece on Bernie Sanders today, Mostly True: Bernie Sanders’ claim about America’s ‘lowest on earth’ voter turnout.
“Today, the United States has, sadly, one of the lowest voter turnouts of any major country on earth,” Sanders claimed.
Of all the claims candidates make during a primary season about the least controversial is voter turnout rates, but Politifact chose that to focus on. I suppose that ones that are data-based are the easiest to tackle, and with a puff piece they maybe didn’t want to work very hard.
But they didn’t get it right. The only source for their data can be the census.gov website, and I have that data myself, having written about it twice recently. THE BIG LIE ABOUT VOTER TURNOUT (I MEAN IT), There it is again: In 2012 86.8% of registered voters DID vote, but. . ., and The Golden Ballot Award for 2012 – Who Will Win in 2016?
AMAZINGLY, Politifact says this:
“Last May, the Pew Research Center ranked the United States 31st among 34 developed countries in voting turnout. The center examined votes cast as a percentage of countries’ estimated voting-age population.”
Now, what is wrong with this statement? Say someone is 25, a legal immigrant, and living in New York City. Is that person voting-age population”? Yes. Is there ANY legal chance he can vote? No.
YOU CANNOT USE VOTING-AGE POPULATION TO DERIVE THESE VOTING RATES, POLITIFACT! Continue reading
Okay, let’s do a little delegate math…
What Does Clinton Need to Close It Out?
She’s closer to winning it then the News Media is telling us.
Hillary Clinton has 1,160 pledged delegates plus 465 PLEOs (superdelegates) for a total of 1,625 total delegates. Ignore the Sanders people who think the superdelegates will switch en masse. They are misunderstanding both delegates math and human nature. They REASLLY don’t know who those superdelegats are. Which is really dumb, because it is even on Wiki, right down to their names – all of them. A simple google turns it up. How lazy can so many people BE?
So to get to the required 2,383, she needs 758 more pledged delegates. Once she gets there no superdelegate who prefers her (467 right now) will possibly change his/her mind. To do so would be political suicide – pun intended.
So, she needs 758, and there are a total of 2,278 delegates of all sorts remaining. Of those, 2,053 are pledged delegates available in the primaries and caucuses.
Let’s see what she needs to do to get her 758 out of those 2,053 pledged delegates available in the upcoming 29 contests.
That 758 is 36.92% of the 2,053. That certainly sounds damned doable and, frankly, EASY. She is now pulling 58.5% of ALL votes thus far cast.
There is no need to look at what Sanders needs. If SHE gets those 758 delegates, it’s all over, period. Continue reading