I’ve known all this for some time now. Hillary Clinton has it in the bag. Sanders does NOT have a path to victory.
It is my opinion that Sanders is well aware of it, but refuses to let his people know how bad it is.
Here is the MAGIC NUMBER 639.
WHY? She now has 1744 delegates, INCLUDING the superdelegates that Sanders is humping for RIGHT NOW. He is humping for them because he knows those votes of those delegates COUNT. He will be lucky to flip 5. Out of Hillary’s 475. WHOOP DE DOO.
So, when Hillary gets 639 more delegates, she will have 2383. When she DOES, she will have won. CAN SHE?
A piece of cake. Based on the latest polls, she will get about 789 from WI-NY-CA-PA-NJ-CT-MD-RI-DE-NM-PR-DC, and there ain’t a lot Sanders can do about that.
Can he cut it down by 100? Maybe. But too little, too late.
For those who can’t count it up, 789 is 150 MORE than the 639 she needs to clinch. So if she gets that many (as it seems) she will have 150 more than the 2383. That makes 2533.
When she CLINCHES, IT’S OVER. BERNIE LOSES.
And those 789 aren’t all.
There are another 288 or so for her in not-so-friendly states like ND-SD-WY-MT-IN-OR-GU-WV-KY-VI. She will get those because of the proportional primaries that the Democrats run.
She will then have 2821, more or less.
And THOSE aren’t all, either. THEN there are the 217 uncommitted SUPERDELEGATES, who, once she gets really close (like after PA) will start committing to Hillary. Expect 200 of those for her. She will THEN have 3021 give or take a few.
THAT IS IT. Hillary is pretty much in the driver’s seat and seh is closing in on the last lap. It’s a shame these contests are spread out so much now, because the waiting makes it seem like nothing is going on.
I see that the VERY latest poll in WI shows that Hillary is leading by 1%, which means basically a tie. If Sanders loses ANOTHER ONE, he will keep pointing at WA-HI-AK as the week he swept Hilllary.
What it was was his last hurrah. Maybe not. If he wins WI by 2 votes he will claim victory in another dead heat. But for him at this stage anything under a 75% win is a loss.