Delegate math says. . .


Okay, let’s do a little delegate math…

Democratic primaries…

What Does Clinton Need to Close It Out?

She’s closer to winning it then the News Media is telling us.

Hillary Clinton has 1,160 pledged delegates plus 465 PLEOs (superdelegates) for a total of 1,625 total delegates. Ignore the Sanders people who think the superdelegates will switch en masse.  They are misunderstanding both delegates math and human nature.  They REASLLY don’t know who those superdelegats are.  Which is really dumb, because it is even on Wiki, right down to their names – all of them.  A simple google turns it up.  How lazy can so many people BE?

So to get to the required 2,383, she needs 758 more pledged delegates. Once she gets there no superdelegate who prefers her (467 right now) will possibly change his/her mind.  To do so would be political suicide – pun intended.

So, she needs 758, and there are a total of 2,278 delegates of all sorts remaining. Of those, 2,053 are pledged delegates available in the primaries and caucuses.

Let’s see what she needs to do to get her 758 out of those 2,053 pledged delegates available in the upcoming 29 contests.

That 758 is 36.92% of the 2,053. That certainly sounds damned doable and, frankly, EASY.  She is now pulling 58.5% of ALL votes thus far cast.

There is no need to look at what Sanders needs. If SHE gets those 758 delegates, it’s all over, period.

Now, a lot of noise is being created, talking about how favorable the near future contests are. But are those even important? Well, let’s see…

In terms of pledged delegates, the Hillary wheelhouse states left are CA (475), NY (247), PA (189), NJ (126), MD (96), and AZ (75), totaling 1207 pledged delegates available.

If Bernie Sanders Holds Clinton in Her Wheelhouse States

Now, let’s say that Sanders pulls off a minor miracle and holds her to a DRAW in those 6 states. Let’s give him 604 and her 603 delegates won in those.

Well, that is STILL Hillary winning 603 pledged delegates, doesn’t it?  603 closer to her 758.

If she gets THAT many, that means she only needs to get 155 pledged delegates out of the remaining 23 contests. That is an average of only 6.74 delegates per contest. In the other states there are 813 pledged delgates available. So, with proportional voting, she only needs to get 155/813 = 19% of the delegates in the other 29 contests.

Sanders needs to hold her below THAT, or she wins. Period.

Meaning he needs to not only hold her to a draw in HER states, he needs to pull down 82% of the pledged delegates in HIS states.  He’s done that inexactly ONE state, his home state of Vermont.

If Hillary Clinton  WINS Those 6 States

And if she does better in those Hillary Wheelhouse states than 50%, Sander’s task is even MORE difficult, bordering on virgin birth level miracles.

She is now receiving 58.5% of the total votes cast, all the way back to Iowa. In the March 15th races her average was 56.78%. Let’s use 56% to be a little conservative.

If she pulls 56% of the 1207 Wheelhouse pledged delegates, that is 676 pledged delegates. In all of this, we are still assuming no change in the superdelegates numbers; we are freezing them where they are right now – 467 to 26.

So, instead of her needing 155 out of the other states, she only would need 81 ledged delegates out of the other states. To do that she would only need 10% of the 813 other available pledged delegates.

Can Sanders hold her under 10%?

Don’t be ridiculous.

It’s over.

Advertisements

One response to “Delegate math says. . .

  1. Okay, bad news for the Bern…

    The latest NY poll shows Hillary up 71% to 23%, a gap of 48%. Straight proportional that amounts to a 111 pledged delegate GAIN for Clinton, if that holds. That is – on ONE state – about what she won from FIVE wins in the 15th.

    The good news for Sanders is that he has plenty of time to work on that, and that there is a lot of potential upside. To get to 50-50, he’s got a TON of work cut out for him.

    That margin was up from 55-34 just 15 days earlier, a gap of 21%. So Sanders went in the wrong direction there. Since it has so many delegates, that 27% jump suggests a whopping 26 more delegates for Clinton.

    Sanders can’t afford to be giving away delegates like that.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s