When Bernie Fails, What Are the College Kids Going to Do?


Who are the college kids going to vote for, between Hillary and Trump?

Anyone who thinks Trump gets their votes is out of his batshit crazy mind.

So, 50% stay home? Wow, that would be a shocker. They are going to throw a temper tantrum and hold their breath till they are purple, with the craziest GOP candidate ever looming out there and Scalia’s replacement on the line? Great citizens there.

There are TWO reasons for voting.  One is FOR something.  The other is AGAINST someone and something.  (I know, brilliant. . . No one has ever thought of that before…)

They will NEVER get their free tuition if the Dems don’t win. This election is THE turning point.

They want more Liberal.  Fine.  Not now, but it’s coming.  “PATIENCE, my Pretties!”

More Liberal (eventually) probably means one step at a time, Hillary now, and build a Democratic sanity back into government. The government isn’t dysfunctional BECAUSE of the Dems, but in spite of the Dems’ best efforts to STOP the idiocy and criminality and deregulation.

Eight years of Hillary will mark 24 out of the last 32 years that we had a Dem in the WH. ONLY that and the years we had Dem majorities in Congress were sane years. Not perfect, but not insane.

The Repugs are self-immolating before our eyes. This is a GREAT opportunity to make BIG inroads into the majorities in Congress. The Senate is more or less a lock for 51 or better. The House – in the House we need 30 wins. That’s tough.

Which is why we need COATTAILS.

It might be worth noting that in 2006, Bush’s last off-year election, when the GOP brand lost credibility, the Dems won 32 and took over. The GOoPer brand isn’t any more popular today than then. And if Trump really DOES have a ceiling of 35-40%, and if the establishment Repugs are talking LOUD about bailing on this election (if not the party), this is a royal opportunity.

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2 responses to “When Bernie Fails, What Are the College Kids Going to Do?

  1. I don’;t think the establishment Republicans will bail on Trump if he gets the nomination. They will try to find some way to work with him.

    The interesting question is what happens to Trump supporters if Trump doesn’t get the nomination, particularly in some brokered convention scenario. My guess is most of them stay home, although some might bend over and pull the lever for the Republican and some might vote for Hillary in protest. That might return the House and Senate to the Democrats..

    • James. 10 days later, your 2nd paragraph is actively being discussed with great energy by those exact establishment Republicans.

      We should have all been able to see this coming. I saw it with Cruz vs Rubio – Tea Partiers vs BizRepugs. Trump has been a wild card, and I didn’t know what his presence as third faction would bring about. I’d been predicting a long time that either the TPers and BizRepugs would blow a gasket when the other’s candidate got the nomination. That would be all the more hyperventilating if the brokered convention was to throw out Trump and give it to Rubio or Cruz or Kasich.

      Just like there was almost no common ground between TPers and BizRepugs besides their hatred of Liberals, the ONLY thing they agree about here is their loathing for Trump. And it makes them look united, even though they aren’t. And after a brokered choice of Rubio or Kasich, the shit is going to hit the fan even MORE.

      This is not going to end well for the GOP. It’s going to cost them the election in more ways than one – increasingly including exactly what you suspect: Returning the Houes to the DEMs. The Senate is already a lost cause this year for the GOP. What they have to hope for there is to keep the Dem majority down to about 54 or less so they can maybe sneak back in 2018 with a slim majority.

      The Dems need THIRTY House seats to change in order to win the majority. Can that be done? It will need at lest one thing: A huge turnout.

      Beyond that, how many ever GOoPers pull the lever for Hillary will, of course, help. How many ever stay HOME would be even better. If they want to throw a tantrum and not show up, I am all in favor of that. The fewer GOoPers show up, the better the House take-back looks.

      In our elections it has come down to voter turnout in every election. High turnout in Presidential years give the Dems gains. Low turnout in off-year elections give the GOP gains. Every 2 years it’s like that. The cure for it is to ONCE (at least) have Dems turn out in force in ONE off-year election, cutting the GOP’s stealing of the election off at the knees. Their whole politics is wrapped around their clear understanding that keeping voter participation DOWN – by state voter registration laws, by intimidation, by Karl-Rove-type misinformation about election day, and by discouraging voters from participating.

      The KNOW they don’t have the votes if everyone votes. Their only hope is ALWAYS that Dems stay home.

      2004 – 125,736,000 votes cast
      2006* – 96,119,000
      2008 – 131,144,000
      2010* – 95,987
      2012 – 132,948
      2014* – 92,251,000

      30-40 million downturns in voter turnouts in off-year elections is the norm and it kills the Dems.

      What needs to happen is that Dems need to take the Senate and House this time, AND turnout in 2018. 2020 will take care of itself – an incumbent President and a big turnout.

      COATTAILS
      The House effort will need coattails. 30 is NOT too many – normally. 30 and more have changed fairly commonly – 10 times since the end of WWII. The average change in those 35 Congresses (inclusive) has been 21.54 seats, with a pretty wide standard deviation of 20.47 seats changed. Ten times in 35 Congresses is about 30% of the time.

      In the last 30 years the average change has been 15.4 seats with a 19.4 standard deviation. The max change was in 2010, the year the Dems really didn’t show up at the polls.

      Reasons all of this is important:

      1.) Scalia’s replacement
      2.) Bader-Ginsburg’s replacement
      3.) Breyer’s replacement
      4.) Kennedy’s replacement
      5.) 2020 census deptrmines the

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