But some otherwise well-informed people keep repeating the same untruth.
My go-to website today (Super Bowl Sunday) repeated it – AGAIN:
In 2008, a team of political scientists from Yale and the University of Northern Iowa conducted a now-famous study in which they sent a mailer to 340,000 people reminding them of their voting history, telling them about their neighbors’ voting histories, letting them know their neighbors had received a similar mailer, and finally announcing that the neighbors would later receive a similar mailer that included whether the recipient voted in the upcoming election. The scientists discovered that this mailer raised turnout rates more than any other voting tactic. In Iowa, Ted Cruz used a threatening variant of this scheme in which the envelope was stamped “VOTING VIOLATION,” insinuating that not voting was a crime. For this tactic, Cruz was lambasted by Iowa Secretary of State Paul D. Pate.
This tactic and variations of it are not the only tool in the candidates’ bag of tricks these days. Studies by university researchers have revealed some other things campaigns can do to increase turnout. Since all campaigns have huge databases containing information on every voter, they can focus like a laser on increasing turnout of their supporters and not of their opponents.
You see, to even HAVE a voting record, you need to be registered. And IF you registered, then 7 out of 8 of you DID vote in 2012. All the crap about low turnout is simply not true. See my post of January 14th, Why Have Polls Been So Wrong? Maybe They Should Try Polling Registered Voters (DUH)
The facts are that in Presidential elections those who are registered DO VOTE. When 7 out of 8 vote, we have to consider that a GOOD TURNOUT.
The problem, as noted in that earlier post, is to get people registered in the first place.
If someone HAS a voting record, they are already registered. All that effort to embarrass them into voting? All they are going to be able to do is get A PORTION of the 1 out of 8 registered voters who didn’t happen to vote in 2012. But that is only 13% of the registered voters.
And getting out the vote campaigns can only target that same 13%.
It’s quite a bit like preaching to the choir. People who register VOTE. Plain and simple. Why go to all that trouble over that 13% ( nationwide), when
On the other hand, why isn’t there a big push to GET MORE PEOPLE REGISTERED? There were 61.9 million CITIZENS in 2012 who were not registered. There were 20.2 million registered voters who didn’t vote. Which number is bigger, 61.9 million or 20.2 million? Why is no one making a concerted effort to go after the 61.9 million instead of the 20.2 million?
That makes no sense to me. THREE TIMES as many citizens are unregistered as non-voting registered citizens. There is three times the UP SIDE to getting them registered.
Because if they get registered, THEY WILL VOTE – to the tune of about 7 out of 8.
This is a no-brainer and everyone is missing it.