Sometimes I do the weirdest things, just for fun. Some might think they are boring, but sometimes my mind gets stuck on them and I have to see where they go.
Something caught my eye…
I was looking at the satellite graph for the UAH global lower troposphere temps over at WattsUpWithThat.com, shown here:
I noticed the huge 30-month-long dip after the 1998 all-time high. I thought, “Could that be a rebound effect?”
There was something of that kind that was then reflected in the graph of the Central England Temperatures (CET), the longest continuous thermometer record in the world:
See the 2010 big dip? Followed by the big rise? Another rebound effect there, too, but in the opposite direction?
Right after the big 1998 peak in UAH and the big 2010 dip in the CET there was a big reversal of the extreme. Was that real? Or a coincidence?
The thing I also noticed – and maybe the important part of it all was what happened AFTER the rebound. The 1998 UAH anomaly peak dropped like a rock for those ~30 months before it leveled off – but it leveled off at a HIGH level that was somewhat below the peak (the hiatus level, really). In noticing that, I wondered if it wasn’t like a car without shock absorbers when the breaks are put on – the car nods back and forth before the car settles in at a slower speed. It feels like being in a boat.
Then I saw the CET graph, and I noticed the same thing happening but in the opposite direction. There was a fairly level bar chart from 1989 to 2009 (averaging 10.24 degrees C), and then the 2010 BIG dip, followed by a rebound in 2011, and then a (perhaps) settling down to a somewhat less extreme level in 2012 and 2013 – and that level was BELOW the levels of 1997-2009, at about 9.50 C?
Should we be looking for the temps in CET to stay low like that for about another ten years?
I have NO idea. But put me down for a screwball prediction: Ten more years of 2012-2013 climate for CET.
…Actually, I couldn’t let it go at a wild guess. I spreadsheeted the CET from 1659 to 2012, and there are some interesting patterns that do not dispel this conjecture, not in my mind:
- It started out already in a cold spell – part of the Little Ice Age – and who knows how long that preceded all of this. The first 68 years averaged 8.84. The first 43 years were even colder averaged 8.65. In those 43 years only 11 years were above 9.00. SEVEN years were under 8.00. (But that is not the pattern I was looking at, unless before 1659 there was a sharp nosedive that is not in the record…)
- In 1749 it dropped 2.36 degrees to an all-time low annual of 6.84. The next 31 years averaged only 9.02. Fully 20 of those were under 9.00.
- In 1782 the temp dropped 2.19 degrees. In the next 16 years the average was 8.99, after 10 years of 9.45 (which was equivalent to most of the 1900s).
- After a brief respite, in 1799 the temp dropped 1.72 degrees to 7.89, followed by 41 years with an average of 9.08.
- In 1860 it also dropped 1.72 degrees, and ALSO to 7.89 (interesting!), but this time it was followed by a WARMER average of 9.38 for 14 years. This one is an outlier.
- In 1879 it dropped 1.82 to 7.42, with and average of 8.88 for 16 years. That ended in 1895. One might be tempted to say that central England’s Little Ice Age ended in 1895. Five years averaging 9.53 dropped off a bit until 1922, but basically ever since, CET has shown averages of mid -9 degree temps or above.
- To set those cold phases (8.84, 8.65, 9.02, 8.99, 9.08, 8.88) all in some context, from 1926 to 2012 there were FOUR consecutive 21-year periods with averages of 9.53, 9.46, 9.49 and 10.24 – at least half a degree C above the earlier temps, but VERY stable, too, for at least 63 years. None of those warm phases began with a jump (as opposed to the sharp drops immediately preceding the decades-long cold periods of the 1700s and 1800s and early 1900s. After 1925 CET was very stable for 63+ years and then a somewhat smaller upswing came after 1989. Some of those cold phases had very few years in between, but the nosedives were there nonetheless.
- It should be noted that the 84-year (relative) warmth began before the big CO2 from world industrialization that is blamed for global warming. 9.46 and 9.53 versus 7.89 and 8.02 and 8.18 is a HUGE jump – and it <b>cannot</b> be blamed on CO2.
- The overall trend is cold spells until the mid-1920s, then warm spells since then. This happened in spite of aerosols, better known as air pollution. Aerosols are currently begin blamed for keeping the temps down in the years before the Hockey stick rise. But these numbers in Central England belie that argument. The warming began in the very industrialized, polluting 1920s. The pollution was not abated until after the killing London fogs of the early 1950s caused the Brits to make serious efforts to stop polluting the air. <b>And NOTHING changed in the CET temps from 30 years earlier to 40 years later.</b>
So, back to my original inquiry, the patterns seem to be that a sharp nosedive precedes at least 14 years of cold, and in increments of around 14-15 years (31, 14, 41, 14, 16) – increments averaging 14.6 with very little variation.
So the 2010 drop was 1.28, the second biggest drop since 1922 (which was at the end of the last cold spell) – but not as big as the earlier long cold spells. There was a 1.35 drop in 1962, which had a three year cold spell, but only that and no more.
Now, do we expect a 3-year drop or a 14-year drop, or 28, or 42? 2013 is NOT going to be warmer. With the December 30-year average plugged in just now, the annual average will only be ~9.44, 0.8 down from the 10.24 average pf the 21-year period. That will be down ~1.26 below the 2010 rebound peak, and just in line with my speculation. But it is only the 3rd year. Will it become 14 years or stop there?
<b>Put me down for 11 more years. . . to 2024.</b> I think this is something that might be real.
As to the rebound itself (as opposed to the length of the phases), if you go look at the first graph again, look at 2010. That rise up to the peak in 2010 is about 75% as high as the rise to the 1998 peak. And right afterward, there is a serious and apparently non-random drop of 0.3 degrees, before – again – there is a flattening out at some level below the peak but above the (rebound?) dip. The two patterns look amazingly alike, – and both end up with a plateau at the same level.
Hahaha – Sometimes it is amazing how “random” temp data can look so organized. Today I might go down as one of the latest to fall into the conspiracy by Mother Nature to delude us poor souls…
But in one year from now we might begin to find out if England will have only 3 years of cold or 14.
[It is very possible I have at least one number transcription error here, but it is late and I am going to hit the "Publish" button because I am tired. It's late!]